Climate Migration

The following is from the March/April issue of Life in the Finger Lakes.

Climate Migration

Is A Change in Store For the Finger Lakes?

I don’t think many of us were surprised to learn that 2023 was the hottest year on record for the eighth year in a row. Or that we recorded the highest ocean temperature ever last year. What did surprise many of us were the Canadian wildfires last summer that filled our air with smoke for weeks. Clearly climate change is beginning to affect us in unimaginable ways.

How are we in the Finger Lakes going to be affected?

Like most places, our temperatures will rise, weather patterns will become more erratic and there will be a decrease in the biodiversity of flora and fauna.

The biggest change may be a large influx of climate migrants looking to escape stifling heat and flooded coastal areas. For them, the Finger Lakes Region is a climate haven.

Five years ago, I wrote a piece for Life in the Finger Lakes, “Is Population Growth Coming to Upstate New York?” The article predicted a rise in our population from an inflow of climate migrants. So far there continues to be a net outflow of residents from New York State. However, prognosticators and national media have since begun to tout our area as a climate haven.

In his book How to Prepare for Climate Change, CBS correspondent Daniel Pogue recommends moving to cities along the Great Lakes such as Buffalo. “Cold, snowy Syracuse and Buffalo could be shelters from the storms,” Pogue said in an interview. He added, “Florida and Arizona are the worse places for you to retire.” Several other organizations believe the Great Lakes Region will be a climate haven, such as Wisconsin Public Radio, Crains Detroit, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and NOAA.

Gaia Vince, in her book Nomad Century, How Climate Migration Will Reshape Our World, feels the Great Lakes Region in the USA and Canada are climate havens that will see a “huge influx of residents … as the vast bodies of water should keep the temperature fairly temperate.” Believing the 45° N parallel (the very northern tip of NYS) and above will become the 21 century’s “booming haven.”

We need only look to our neighbor to the north of Lake Ontario to see how large inflows of immigrants can flood an area and change its complexion. It seems like there is one housing development after another from Niagara Falls to well on the other side of Toronto, approaching the Thousand Islands. In 2021 Toronto was ranked the 21st most congested city in North America; it spiked to being third in 2022. If we act now this does not need to be our fate.

The case for the Finger Lakes as a climate refuge is compelling. Our temperature is more moderate and we have an abundance of water, both from the Finger Lakes and our proximity to the Great Lakes. There are several factors that are creating climate migrants and drawing them to our area. First, life is becoming increasingly challenging in the south. Second, support networks sustaining hot areas are beginning to fray. Thirdly, the pool of northern havens is not as large as believed.

Climates are not friendly in the South and West

Consider some of last summer’s heat records. Miami, FL; Austin, TX and Phoenix, AZ each had several weeks of temperatures at 100 degrees or more. July was the hottest month on record.

A study by the First Street Foundation in 2022 predicted that the heat index will reach 125 degrees, what it calls “Extreme Danger,” at least once per year within the next 30 years in most Texas counties. As for the rest of the country, it said that 8 million residents in the U.S. experienced Extreme Danger Days in 2022; by 2053, that number will reach 107 million.

Rising temperatures will encourage people to move to cooler climates.

The National Ocean Service predicts that sea levels could rise by as much as a foot by 2050, overwhelming coastal areas. Large swaths of Florida and Louisiana will be below annual flood levels.

Additionally, rising sea levels will pollute fresh water estuaries close to the coast with salt, ruining the source of drinking water for many coastal areas. Then there is the surge of wildfires and the resulting smoke. Last year the UN forecast that wildfires will increase by 50 percent by 2100, and they will be more intense. Higher temperatures will provide more fuel for hurricanes and tornadoes, increasing their intensity, season length and most likely their frequency. All of which will disproportionately affect areas already hard hit by climate change.

 

Support networks are beginning to fray

Climate change is putting pressure on support networks that make home ownership possible in climate-stricken areas.

Consider homeowners insurance. Farmers just joined about a dozen other insurance companies that will no longer underwrite homeowners insurance in Florida. The average cost for insuring a home in Florida jumped 42 percent to $4,200 in 2023, compared to $1,800 the national average. Allstate and State Farm are no longer underwriting homes in Texas and California. Similarly, insurers are leaving Arizona and Louisiana.

Eric Andersen, head of AON, the largest reinsurer (reinsurers help insurers absorb catastrophic losses), testified before the Senate in March 2023. He said there has been

a crisis of confidence in predicting losses, particularly for wildfires and floods. Comparing the current state of underwriting risk to the financial crisis of 2008, Anderson stated “Just as the U.S. economy was overexposed to mortgage risk in 2008, the economy today is over-exposed to climate risk.”

Rising temperatures in the South is making it unsafe to work outside during heatwaves. OSHA recommends extra precautions be taken when temperatures reach 95 degrees. This will reduce when workers can work, and possibly the pool of workers, and raise the cost of home repairs.

Diminishing support networks will add to the climate induced pressure to have people move.

Climate haven locations are nuanced

Finding a climate haven is more than just moving  north. Changing weather patterns and other factors may alter perceptions of where a safe area is located. The Pacific Northwest’s 2021 heat dome, earlier departure of snowpack and infestation of pine beetles (which increase the chance of wildfires) showed it might not be the climate havenmany of us thought.

Last summer, New England saw heavy rainfall that led to flooding.The southern tier in New York is the most flood prone area in the state and has been flooded on several occasions. By 2100, New York City could experience a sea rise of 5 feet, give or take a foot. In August 2014, Toledo, OH faced a water crisis due to algae blooms in Lake Erie.

The good news is that we have time. People continue to leave New York. Surprisingly some of the states experiencing the highest inflow of new residents are also the most vulnerable states to climate change, such as Florida and Texas.

Preserve and protect the earth

Vince believes the world can handle the coming surge of climate migrants. In her book she points out that if we allow 20 square meters of space per person – more than double English planning regulations– 11 billion people would need 220,000 square kilometers. No doubt Vince has compassion for people and the environment, but her perspective is about how we can save ourselves, not how we can save our environment. I would argue that if we instead focus on how we can save the earth, we will in the process save ourselves.

The coming inflow of climate migrates provides an opportunity to help us focus on climate change, do something about it and attract resources.

We should try to protect and preserve as much land as possible. Fortunately, the Finger Lakes Land Trust (FLLT) has been doing so for years, as have the Central New York Land Trust and the Ontario Land Trust whose mandate includes a few areas in the Finger Lakes. Besides acquiring property, their use of conservation easements prevents the development of the land they have underwritten – meaning large swaths of land cannot be developed.

The more land we can lock up and protect from development, the more of our identity we can keep and the less we will look like one massive suburb.

President Biden signed an executive order when he took office that looks to preserve 30 percent of America’s land and water by 2030. Likewise, Governor Hochul signed legislation December 2021 to preserve 30 percent of NY’s water and land by 2030. The state will rely on a variety of measures to secure its ambitious goals from land purchases, to offering grants and encouraging conservation easements.

It will be a challenge to preserve 30 percent of the Finger Lakes by 2030. Max Heitner of the FLLT believes that the current amount of land preserved in the Finger Lakes as a percentage is in the low teens.

The state is beginning to prepare for the inflow of climate migrants. OnMarch 29, 2023 Senator Rachel May (whose district includes part of the Finger Lakes) introduced Senate Bill S6106, the Climate Relocation Planning and Preparation Act, to the finance committee. This is a start. But more needs to be done.

Businesses will also look to move to the Finger Lakes. Politicians need to realize we are a climate haven and not give them all sorts of tax breaks. Instead, they need to start thinking like Tom Sawyer who got his classmates to pay him for the privilege of painting a fence.

Fortunately, the inflow of climate migrants has yet to begin in earnest, so we have time to prepare. I expect very shortly we will see large pools of money looking to invest in our area; possibly even competing with land trusts for property.

Please donate to, or volunteer for, one of our land trusts. If you are a landowner, consider signing a conservation easement.

Madis Senner is an author who lives in Syracuse. You can read his musings at motherearthprayers. blogspot.com. His latest book is Everything Has Karma: Learning to Embrace Our Interconnectedness.