Existential climate-related security risk:
A scenario approach
● Analysis of climate-related security threats depends significantly on understanding the strengths and limitations of climate science projections. Much scientific knowledge produced for climate policy-making is conservative and reticent.
● Climate change now represents a near- to mid-term existential threat to human civilisation. A new approach to climate-related security risk-management is thus required, giving particular attention to the high-end and difficult-to-quantify “fat-tail” possibilities.
● This may be most effectively explored by scenario analysis. A 2050 scenario is outlined in which accelerating climate- change impacts pose large negative consequences to humanity which might not be undone for centuries.
● To reduce such risks and to sustain human civilisation, it is essential to build a zero- emissions industrial system very quickly. This requires the global mobilization of resources on an emergency basis, akin to a wartime level of response.